Distinct warning to all pessimists, including some national entrepreneurs: in Brazil there are currently approximately 12.000 infrastructure projects underway, including logistics, urban mobility, healthcare, mining, petro-industry, electricity and alternative energies, telecommunication, sports and habitation, tourism and education, leisure, airports, new enterprises and agro-industries and others – all to be inaugurated between 2014 and 2018. Who travels a lot through and across Brazil witnesses this every day and every night.
To tell the truth, while the modern capitalist world is deteriorating with its highly speculative stock exchanges and forgetting about the economic fundamentals, including human needs, Brazil attempts to build, gradually, its true economic fundamentals, rather based on the actual human being, his needs, demands as well as social gains and reforms.
It is estimated that between 30 and 60 % of the daily stock exchange operations in the US and in Europe have eventually a “non-commercial” character, are highly speculative, ranging towards which may be illustratively called “dirty money”. In the middle of 2013, short-term gain oriented speculation reached up to 400.000 daily contracts of corn and 240.000 daily contracts of Soybeans at the stock exchange of Chicago – and all this at the cost and to the detriment of their producers, to the most part rural families and small agricultural enterprises that exclusively have to bear the cost and the risk of production. The UN estimates that criminal organizations gain annually around 870 billion USD on the market of illicit products.
Brazil – even surprising to some of those that allegedly know the country well - is gradually, but steadily developing its own genuine model of social and economic development, directed towards the construction of a country based on the inclusion of everyone, the elderly, the poor and the starving – and this accrues for Brazilians as well as foreigners that chose to live her and raise their children as well. We are progressively adapting part of the social model practiced in Sweden as well as the ambiental model, based on the respect for ethnos and traditions, as practiced in Australia. Brazil does not want to adapt a developmental model as nowadays prevalent in China, based on rapid and unsustainable growth, to the detriment of the environment. Additionally, we also don´t want the “ultra-liberal” model, or rather the predatory capitalism as practiced in the US where the poor, elderly and starving – after having worked and contributed to economy and society, even in endless wars, for many years – are practically abandoned by the rich or young (or even the white). Then again, we also don´t want to adopt the aggressive and offensive posture of Russia, nor a society based on inherited separation and exclusion as in India (caste system). It is well advised to remember always that Brazil is a relatively young nation which cannot afford dangerous or unjust developmental models. Several of the poorer countries in the world are starting to observe and study us, even adopting some of your strategies and attitudes. Concluding, we will need enterprises, companies and serious and honest partners that also believe in this developmental way. Together, we will be able to implement our genuine developmental model, even in direct competition with the western predatory capitalism.
Who knows Brazil never will forget our social justice, our preoccupation with environment and nature, our care for families as well as the elderly and the poor and – last but not least – our mentality based on optimism and cheerfulness. Violence and corruption can be found globally, with different intensities. The problem is that the international press, for obvious reasons, tends to emphasize this whenever relating to Brazil.
The time is right for Brazil to prove that there is an enormous gap between the numeric projections and analyses of rating agencies (that are rather linked to the dictates of predatory capitalism) and the actual and real economic variables. Brazils enormous improvements on economic, social and environmental scale are systematically underestimated by pure gross country indicators, favored by rating agencies (see my recent article in Portuguese:
http://www.agrolink.com.br/colunistas/ColunaDetalhe.aspx?CodColuna=6332 .
“Brazil is a gigantic construction lot, maybe yet not entirely comparable to China or India, but continuously progressing and, moreover, more stable and consistent than other BRIC-countries. Additionally, there are plenty of natural resources, strategically located mineral deposits and, last but not least, abundant and fertile lands that turn Brazil in one of the major, if not the biggest, agricultural players in the world.”
Why so many multinational companies as well as domestic enterprises have been prospecting the opportunities and chances during the last months and years? Is it possible that some will put – at intend to put – so much capital only due to political support, certain specific political incentives into the country? Or did they, perhaps, realize that “our moment” finally arrived? What do they know that we don´t know (or don´t believe)?
The big developmental upturn in Brazil is bound to start in 2014 or 2015, with or without the approval of external Rating Agencies or foreign governments. Many multinational and domestic companies and enterprises perceived this already and started initializing or expanding projects – in partnership with federal, state or municipal governments, with national companies or inside own projects. Additionally, there is a “run” for new opportunities, especially in the Center-North, North-East regions as well as those in the neighborhood of the new petrol and gas extraction and refining areas. Indeed, our moment has finally come – it´s our turn now.
At the end of 2013, the Brazilian Ministry of Economics and Commerce (Ministerio da Fazenda) confirmed that 2014 could possibly be the year of global economic upturn, benefitting Brazil considerably. According to the Ministry, “2013 was the bottom for the international economy, maybe even the last year of the crisis that had started in 2008”.
In the beginning of 2014, studies of the World Bank foresaw, also thanks to the upcoming World Cup, the Olympics in 2016 and a certain recuperation of the world economy, an average growth of 2,4 % of the Brazilian PIB in 2014, 2,7 % in 2015 and 3,7 % in 2016.
In 2014, the Banking Federation of Brazil estimated an increase of loans by 13,7 % compared to 2013.
Furthermore, in january of 2014 alone there was an increase in salaries of 10,4 %, increasing subsequently retail sales and services by 2,9 % and leading to record tax revenues of 53,6 billion R$ in this very month (growth of 6,5 % compared to january 2013). Additionally, exports increased by 8,3 % compared to the previous month december.
Also already in 2014 the domestic industry started its upturn by improving several of their numbers. The rate of capacity utilization reached 82,7 % in january, the highest level since april 2013. The actual turnover, calculated without seasonal effects, grew by 1,6 % in comparison to december of the previous year and by 2,4 % compared to January 2013.
Taking everything into account, already in 2015 the measures taken by the Brazilian government in order to increase investments should have their first positive effect on the national economy, according leading economists. It is believed that 2014 will be the year of transition from a mainly consumption based, domestic economy to investment-based economy with strong international ties.
According to PETROBRAS, from 2015 on Brazil should again be able to rely on its own production of gas and petroleum, a self-sufficiency lost in 2011. The gross production of oil petroleum should reach 2,3 billion barrels per day in 2015, achieving approximately 3,7 billions in 2020 and excelling 5 billion barrels in 2025. It is further estimated that the internal demand for petroleum might hit 3,4 billion barrels.
Still in 2014 or 2015, due to the inaugurations of new large national refineries, the internal production of oil derivatives should be able to meet our entire demand in 2020, reducing our highly expensive import needs.
In 2014 and 2015 thousands of medium and large infrastructure projects are going to be completed and inaugurated (the major share of them of a private nature, indicating that the private sector is one step ahead compared to the public sector). All these represent “new fundamentals” in order to modernize and developmentally accelerate the country, including the reduction of the so called “Custo Brazil”. Let us thus take a look at some of these private, public and public-partnership projects:
1) Large infrastructure investments by the federal government: the North-South Railway from Itaqui (Maranhão) to Anápolis (Goias) and an extension of this railway leading further to Estrela d´Oeste (São Paulo); start of extension of the Northern Railway (Ferronorte) from Rondonopolis (MT) to Cuiaba (capital of State of MT very rich in grains, foods, iron ore, minerals etc.); part of the Transnordestin Rail; Part of the Railway FIOL between Barreiras and Ilhéus under rapid building including the huge bridging across the Rio São Francisco river; expansion/duplication of the Carajás Railway; big part of the São Francisco water transposition channel for use in humans, animals and irrigation in the semi-arid northeast (750 km) more part of the Agreste water adductor for people use in Pernambuco (1.300 km) more the completion of the Pajeú water channel, equally in Pernambuco too (195 km); completion of the Sertão water channel (250 km in state of Alagoas); completion of the Highway Cuiabá-Santarém (including access to the port of Miritituba); several new highways as well as overhauling of older ones, including privatized ones; 2.000 new agencies of the CEF (Caixa Economica Federal); around 5.000 small and medium-sized investments into health and education (according to PAC 2); around 1,5 million new habitations and residences, almost zeroing the “habitational deficit” of the country; around 400.000 new water and electricity connections (part of the program “Àgua e Luz para Todos” – “Water and Light for Everyone”) – practically zeroing the high anterior deficit.
2) Large and medium-sized construction projects by the state and municipal governments: numerous metro stations in Sampa; hundreds of new hospital and first-aid-installations; thousands of kilometers of new sewer and drainage systems as well as water conduits, new schools (including reforms and expansions of already existing ones); hundreds of new sanitation embankments; new recycling and waste disposal installations, fulfilling the provisions of Law 12.305/2010.
3) Petroleum and gas: implantation of the petroleum exploration (pre-salt) at Campo de Libra; start of the construction of numerous new platforms and prospection/installation of new marine oil fields (PETROBRAS) in Sergipe (very large), Rio Grande do Norte (new pre-salt), Pará, São Paulo (Santos) and several other terrestrial oil fields in the interior of Paraíba and Ceará; installation of very large gas refineries in Maranhão and Minas Gerais.
4) New huge ports and sea terminals (TUP), indispensable for the currently overburdened port infrastructure: Large Port in Açu-Rio de Janeiro; another gigantic port in Itaguai-Rio de Janeiro; new TEGRAN terminal in Itaqui/Maranhão (capable of storaging almost 10 % of the total grain production in Brazil); new sugar terminal (Coopersucar) in Santos-São Paulo; installation of at least 30 TUP-terminals for private use; construction and handing over of numerous railway stations and highway hubs connecting to the large ports.
5) Start of the mining exploration (iron ore) in Bamin (region of Caitité-Bahia); Honbridge (Salinas-Minas Gerais); VALE in Porteirinha-Minas Gerais; intensification of Vetria/ALL in Corumbá – Mato Grosso do Sul (very large) and huge of AngloAmerican in the center of Minas Gerais (Guanhães e Conceição do Mato Dentro), including the “mineral-duct” leading to the super-port of Açu-Rio de Janeiro.
6) Hydropower Plants (small and medium-sized) as well as solar plants and wind farms: around 30 new installations as well as renovation/overhauling of older ones; around 20 new windfarms in Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba, Bahia, Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina; installation of solar plants in Ceará, Paraiba and São Paulo.
7) New Aircraft and Helicopter Industries: initial parts of Saab (Gripen) in São Bernardo do Campo – São Paulo; of Avio in Maringá-Paraná; of Augusta Westland/EMBRAER in São José dos Campos – São Paulo; of Eurocopter in Itajuba-Minas Gerais; of Russian/Rostekh/Odebrecht in Rio de Janeiro and of Enstrom Helicopter in Mato Grosso do Sul.
8) Dozens New Automobile Industries (car, busses, trucks, traction engines and combine harvesters) and components: Mercedes Benz, GM, BMW, Honda, Nissan, Toyota, Land Rover, JAC, Chery, Kia, Geely, Navistar, Paccar, FIAT (PE); Foton Aumark, Mahindra, Yunlihong, Metro-Shacman, Sinotruck, Changan, Volvo Mac-Renault, Caio Induscar, Comil, IBRAVA, BYD Motors, Daedong, LS Tractor, Budny, Dunlop, Borgwarner.
9) Manufacture of small and medium-sized motorcycles – around 12 new plants.
10) Increased Food production capabilities and expanding agribusinesses.
11) Several dozens of new food factories and large agribusinesses, additionally hundreds of new fast-food stores, established by companies like Unilever, Seletti, Coamo, Kimberley and Clark, McDonalds, American Store, GAP Zoomlion, CIFA and Vestcasa.
12) New sugar and ethanol processing plants (for example Raizen´s, SHELL/Cosan and COAGRO).
13) A growing number of private constructions (under public concession, as form of PPP – private-public-partnership) like new airports or extensions of already existing ones; at least 5 new export processing zones (EPZ); several new stadiums, especially for the World Cup and the Olimpic Games; numerous new sport and training centers for the Olimpic Games; around 150 new shopping-centers and large commercial areas (malls, outlets) with small, medium-sized and large shops; around 200 new hotels and resorts; hundreds of new specialized colleges; dozens of new technical schools, including public ones like the recent PRONATEC (National Program for Access to Technical Education and Employment).
14) Still for 2014 the immediate privatization of some railway lines, so far inoperative (especially branches of the Railways FCA and ALL), is planned. Furthermore 2 auctions inside the PIL (Novo Plano de Logística Ferroviária, Rodoviária, Portuária e Aeroportuária do Governo = the new Federal Logistics Plan for new railways, highways, ports and regional airports – which will require a large number of international partnerships investors and some international building companies) are going to be put into reality. The main objectives are the rapid and environmentally nonhazardous construction of two central railways, from the eastern Atlantic to the Northern Atlantic in Brazil, both fundamental and indispensable for considerably cheaper logistics of corn and in general agricultural products produced in the fertile regions of Center, West and Northeastern Brazil. These new logistics are also crucial for the connection to the large ports that will be closer to the corresponding ports in the US, Europe and Asia (via the new Panamá canal and/or the ports of Mersin/Isdemir in Turkey both for large ships, between 120 and 300 thousand tons, and much closer to Asia than current brazilian best paths). Inside the PIL plan, the Brazilian government will finance up to 62 % of the entire investment costs, but will require excellent and highly proficient partnerships and a minimum of 38 % of the investments provided by private enterprises and building companies. Furthermore, the government guarantees a minimum return on investment of 8.5 % per year in relation to the new railway lines, since it will purchase most of the transported commodities and raw materials for many years to come. In total, the new PIL plan will comprise up to 20 large construction projects for railways, highways, sea and rivers ports, regional airports, small and medium-sized hydropower, biomass and solar and winds plants and others.
15) In 2015, the execution of the PIL plan will be well underway, with the first step consisting by a new auctionof the rapid and private construction of a large intermediate section of the largest railway line in Latin-America, the Railway “Bioceanica”, that will connect the ports of Peru (located at the pacific ocean and passing across huge areas rich in agricultural resources as well as minerals) and the new gigantic and profound port of Campos/Açu (Rio de Janeiro) at the Atlantic ocean – the latter to be inaugurated already in 2014 with several large factories and companies already in operation, also very close to notable petroleum refineries (pre-salt). This intermediate section of this future bioceanic railway, that will cross Brazil from the east to the west, will start at the current railway line Norte-Sul (north-south – which is already finished), starting at the city of Uruaçu (Goias), passing by Brasilia (Federal District) and several very important agricultural and mineral-rich regions in the interior of the states Goias, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. This future railway and its trajectory is already entirely planned and is currently undergoing an analysis in relation to environmental impacts – an analysis in accordance to public demands of sustainability and environmental soundness. Furthermore, for the year 2015 the inauguration of the extension of the North-South Railway is planned (FNS – Ferrovia Norte-Sul), a public construction, but already finished in Anápolis (Goias) – close to Brasilia – until the town of Estrela d´Oeste in São Paulo, passing by the rich regions of Goias. All these construction works underway at high speed. Additionally, for 2015 the second auction inside the PIL is planned, directed towards the future railway connection from Estrela d´Oeste (São Paulo) to the interior as well as the Atlantic ports of Rio Grande do Sul, passing by agriculturally rich areas in Paraná and Santa Catarina.
END
Brasília (DF), march/23/2014
* Prof. MB. Cezar Climaco
Brazilian investment and project adviser; CEO of
the AGROVISION - Business Consultings, Intermediations
and Projects ltd (c[email protected]) – Brasília -BRAZIL
** Dr. Rer. pol. Andreas Hahn
Economist and CEO of Hahn Real Estate Germany-Brazil
www.hahn-immo.com/- ALEMANHA 
