Brazil Needs US$ 240 billion/145 Project SAF/Macauba-ethanol

1) ABSTRACT -

This my exclusive, short and highly strategic and detailed article presents and demonstrates - with a wealth of reliable data - the excellent opportunities for many worlds mainly daring fuels-air-navigation-railways more all investments funds and other companies to invest very much in new biofuels Agri-Forest life-saving environmental partnerships Projects – all very profitable and with very low risks – only in Brazil. Our tropical country (already with high and extensive biofuels experience such as ethanol and biodiesel) currently needs up US$ 240 billion (as current exchange of R$ 5,00 = Us$ 1,00) in 145 new large biorefineries to manufacture/sell giants volumes of new SAF/HVO biofuels these with world very high future demands, mainly with cultivation of our Macauba for oil. Brazil is already one of the world's leading producers of sustainable aerial biofuels (SAF) and/or marine/locomotive biofuels (HVO), all aimed at “zero” future emissions and even for total replacement – ??"drop-in" types – or partial replacement of aviation kerosene and bunker diesel and VLS/B24 for ships, locomotives, and other vehicles.

The projected short-term expansion of GLOBAL demand for aerial SAF is staggering, and the largest airlines have deadlines to meet their short-term cleanup targets (demands from their millions of customers). Between 2025 to 2050 alone, global demand for aviation SAF fuel could increase by an INCREDIBLE 11,742.1%, requiring an initial supply of at least 50 billion liters of aviation fuel by 2035 (450 billion liters in 2050) mainly obtained from macauba tree more – but in less productive or much expensive ways - with beef tallow, soy, leftover cooking oils, ethanol, and even urban waste. Currently, for a total global demand of 380 billion liters/year of highly polluting aviation fuel (mostly kerosene), the supply of aviation fuel only represents 1.0% of the total (= only 3.8 billion liters/year).

To meet the initial future global demand of 450 billion liters/year of SAF alone in 2050, according to Airbus Europe, if applied "drop-in" (direct use without mixing with current kerosene) Brazil alone (supplying 35% of this initial demand for SAF alone, equal to 150 billion liters/year in 2050) will require massive and urgent new investments in at least 145 new highly profitable SAF and/or HVO biorefineries, each producing a minimum of 1 billion liters of SAF/year (5 are already planned and/or under construction by ACELEN/Mubadala Group). All of them in Brazil, however, will need excellent logistics to reduce transportation and refining costs. All these new environmental and emergency biofuels will be much cheaper to grow sources and to refine than extracting/refining oil (they will be projects similar to those of ACELEN RENOVÁVEIS/Mubadala Arab Group, the latter initially for 1 billion liters/year and from only 180,000 hectares of well-cultivated/well-processed Macauba tree). Therefore, even adding up all possible 145 new large-scale refineries (with approximately 22 million hectares of pastureland to be recovered using only macauba in various locations), there will still be immense areas of degraded pastureland of up to 130 million hectares to be recovered in Brazil, if possible, with macauba cultivation and intercropping with pastures, always prioritizing family farming as is already the case in ACELEN's forestry development projects.

In terms of financial results in Us$/hectare/year (leveled in the 8th year due to the very different crop cycles), my article shows with recent numbers that the gross income generated by a successful Macauba tree cultivation for bio-oils could be up to 20 times greater than cultivating eucalyptus for pulps in the same area, or up to 40 times greater than pine for sawmills In terms of projected net income, Macauba can provide net income 7 times greater than eucalyptus in US$/hectare/year; 3 times greater than soybeans; and 23 times greater than pine. Thus, Macauba can truly revolutionize our new and future agribusiness/energy sector, provided that oil companies and world competitors to prevent that old and highly destructive diseases don’t contaminate these new Macauba plantations.

In terms of investment values, considering only the three main Brazilian forestry crops (not the purchase of land, as these are separate and similar forestry development projects), on average, investments in the establishment of long-term temporary eucalyptus plantations for pulp production are US$ 1.100/hectare – to be spread over 6-8 years until harvesting, excluding annual maintenance – and investments in very long-term temporary pine plantations for sawmills are US$ 800//hectare, to be spread over up to 10 years. The average cost of establishing 1 hectare of Macauba, in perennial crops, for bio-oil is much higher, at Us$ 4.000/hectare, but this is diluted over approximately 42 years of useful life, from the 8th to the 50th year, and is highly productive (50% of the income comes from the bio-oil of the pulp for SAF/HVO and another 50% from the internal cake for animal feed), except for annual maintenance (initial investment between Us$ 2.000/hectare to US$ 6.000/hectare, depending on the location, topography, species, rainfall, and especially the cultivation, harvesting, and refining technologies, etc.). For further details, INCLUDING WHERE, HOW AND HOW MUCH TO INVEST, MUCH BETTER AND EVEN WITH “ZERO” RISK (I know and have visited 90,0% of the interior of Brazil), contact me only by email at [email protected].

2) SHORT ARTICLE

This highly strategic and detailed/proven article demonstrates that Brazil is already one of the world's leading producers of sustainable aviation biofuels (SAF) and/or marine/locomotive biofuels (HVO), all aimed at zero emissions and even for future total replacements – "drop-in" types – or even partial replacements of aviation kerosene, bunker diesel, and even VLS/B24 for ships, locomotives, and other uses. Given their renewable nature, only the use of SAF can provide reductions of up to 90.0% in net air GHG emissions, based on life cycles, depending on the origin of the raw material, technological production route, and the efficiency of the production process.

In the previous fortnight, some Brazilian adviser show the progress of 03 companies in Brazil in refining crude vegetable and animal oils, and even urban waste, for the manufacture of the new – fundamental, highly demanded and high-value – refined bio-oils SAF “Sustainable Aviation Fuel” (“Sustainable Aviation Fuel” or “Aeronautical Biodiesel”), plus the new naval/locomotive bio-oil HVO “Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil” (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil), was announced.

The projected increase – see above - in world demand for aerial SAF (not counting naval and locomotive HVO) is so large that it's almost alarming, as the world's largest airlines have deadlines to meet their cleaning targets (demands from their millions of global customers). Therefore, flying much more sustainably represents a major victory for the fastest brands that purchase or invest the most in SAF.

According to Airbus Europe's assessment, by 2050 the world will need to produce 450 billion liters/year of SAF alone to "zero out" emissions from the aviation sector and completely eliminate the use of aviation kerosene and similar fuels. This would bankrupt many oil companies, which would then likely retaliate heavily against SAF/HBO and bio-oils from our macauba, soy, ethanol, and similar Brazilian products. To be highly competitive, it will be necessary to offer a large amount of SAF to gain scale and significantly reduce costs (as is already happening with the new macauba from ACELEN RENOVAVEIS/Mubadala in Brazil), since currently SAF is 4 to 6 times more expensive than fossil fuels (kerosene). Alternatively – and in a much better planned and long-term way – current oil companies or some of them – would replan/change/complement their current businesses, since global consumption of industrial fuel oil and other items will remain high for another 200 years, according to experts. Then, they would also start producing SAF (Sustainable Agricultural Production) from cleaner or more sustainable and much cheaper agricultural products (even with triple annual incomes per crop), just as the Arab oil group Mubadala/ACELEN – EXPERTLY/CLEVERLY – already does in Brazil, intending to implement at least 5 large SAF/HVO projects here and, for that purpose, investing the high sum of up to US$ 17 billion (between of US$ 1.5 billion to US$ 2.5 billion – average US$ 2.0 billion - per total project, including crops, all for 1.5 billion liters/year of SAF per project). Each ACELEN project involves own investments (43.0%) plus 57.0% well-secured from up to 12 financial institutions, including 10 international institutions PLUS BNDES Brazil development federal bank plus Bradesco private Brazil bank. See more data at https://www.novacana.com/noticias/producao-global-saf-menos-1-necessario-net-zero-airbus-221025

If Brazil (pension funds, investment funds, serious banks, and other investors, especially foreign ones) truly becomes interested and acts quickly (stopping speculation in stock markets and with credit cards/financial institutions/bets, which the Federal Government/BACEN - Central Bank is very weak in controlling and reducing, with each party placing the entire blame on the other) to explore our enormous potential, the country could produce/export up to 35% of this enormous annual global demand, reaching 150 billion liters of agroforestry systems (SAF) by 2050 (this would require at least 145 new large-scale refining and cultivation projects, each producing/exporting at least 1 billion liters/year of SAF alone). This would trigger a real (not just marketing advertising) socioeconomic and, above all, environmental turnaround in the agro-industry and, especially, in Brazilian family farming – which is still very degrading in terms of pastures and other biomes (with ongoing recovery efforts). Currently the ACELEN just have rapid recovery of millions of hectares of highly degraded pastureland from family farms, similar to what ACELEN more EMBRAPA AgResearch Federal Company are already doing in the Macauba crops in Montes Claros City - MG, and in the central/northeastern region of Bahia, potentially already reaching 4 million hectares of recovered pastureland in their five future giant projects.

The fact is that Brazil will urgently need (taking advantage of the current wave of MUCH HIGHER future global demand, already highly positive and even expensive, all for very high profits and good local socio-environmental reforms in family farming) to have much more companies and municipalities/state governments incentivizing planting, especially with good Macauba plant nurseries and good logistics. The sector in Brazil will need to prioritize/preferably only much more agroforestry development very different investments in PRIVATE/PPP projects of directed and well-executed development like the current is done by many giant and very experienced pulp companies with eucalyptus plantations for pulp (but now in very long terms = 50 years) further refining, exporting and selling domestically the macauba oil and its derived food cake for animal meat. For other details, INCLUDING WHERE, HOW AND HOW MUCH TO INVEST, MUCH BETTER AND EVEN WITH “ZERO” RISK (I know and have visited 90% of the interior of Brazil), contact me only by email [email protected].

The successful cultivation of our miraculous Macaúba palm especially in well-developed agroforestry systems (like those currently used for eucalyptus), can revolutionize all future agricultural production in the country, as well as the real and sustainable socio-environmental regional development of many poor areas of the country. The Macauba tree is native to the Brazil Cerrado biome and therefore highly tolerant of less fertile and less rainy soils, allowing for successful integration with pastures and various other local crops.

The successful cultivation of our miraculous Macaúba palm (native to the Cerrado biome and therefore highly tolerant of less fertile and less rainy soils, allowing for successful intercropping with pastures and various other local crops), especially in well-developed agroforestry systems (like those currently used for eucalyptus), can revolutionize the country's entire future agricultural production, as well as the real and sustainable socio-environmental development of many poor areas of the country.

As highly competitive/fundamental agricultural and income factors of the new Macaúba improved by the EMBRAPA Federal Agr-research Company in Montes Claros City – State of MG (compared to soybeans and other crops and sources for biofuels), we have:

1. It is resistant and perennial, and thus can be well cultivated and harvested annually (very different) from the 7th to the 50th year, without needing replanting (eucalyptus needs to be felled, harvested and replanted at 7 years (thus polluting much more when recultivated and greatly increasing its costs). Harvesting Macauba is a wonderful/exciting experience and is done by very special machines (currently done manually and/or by robots that grip the trunk and climb autonomously, but are well monitored/well programmed) – and in the future even by special rodent drones – and which are still being well developed/improved only in Brazil, as is already done with some fruits, such as orange harvesting (Brazil produces up to 70.0% of the world's juice) and the Amazonian açaí palm (Açaibot), since the height of an adult Macauba tree is between 10 and 15 meters;

1. Although very resistant to prolonged drought, the Macauba tree also requires good annual rainfall (between 1,000 to 1,700 mm/year) to be much more productive. In the first two years, it may even require weekly irrigation by flooding the planting holes with trucks/tanks for good establishment. The ZARC climate/soil system of our EMBRAPA allows for thorough investigation of locations with higher rainfall and thus the most suitable ones, also considering the best terrain for planting. See “Macaúba now has an Agricultural Zoning for Climatic Risk in Brazil” at https://www.embrapa.br/en/busca-de-noticias/-/noticia/86749208/macauba-conta-agora-com-zoneamento-agricola-de-risco-climatico;

1. It can be intercropped with various types of pastures for Cattle for meat or milk production, sheep, goats, horses, free-range poultry, ostriches, etc. and/or with other food crops, or not;

1. Its crude oil production is up to 7 times greater than that of soybeans in liters/hectare/year (from the 7th to the 50th year), but since there is still no dedicated and more efficient extraction system (HEFA is more commonly used). Furthermore, such SAF, the HVO and the BE8 Bevant can be manufacture with Macauba oil too via other routes with technologies already well-established worldwide – even with lower industrial yields and lower productivity – as can soybean oil itself refined by HEFA too (which only has one annual production due to being a temporary/cyclical/seasonal crop) in locations and years with higher productions, PLUS animal tallow, especially from beef cattle (only available annually), PLUS used cooking oil, PLUS even urban waste (MSW), rural waste and biomass (RSR), these with very high and constant supplies, but with a much more expensive and low-yielding industrial process/route – Fischer-Tropsch type;

1. In addition to the oil in the pulp/outer part (equal to 40%-50% of the weight), the Macauba fruit releases a residual cake that is highly nutritious/protein-rich for animals, equal to 60%-50% of its initial weight. Only the macauba kernel can contain VERY HIGH levels of Crude Protein (CP), ranging from 48.0% to 66.0%, compared to as low as 15.0% in its mesocarp and 4.0% in the husk. (Comparatively, soybeans contain up to 77.0% soybean meal, with only 23.0% being bio-oil, but this Hi-pro meal contains up to 48.0% CP, meaning it is a much more nutritious than oily crop). Therefore, the sale of macauba cake is quite expensive/profitable and adds about 50.0% to the gross revenue of the macauba production and processing sector, as is already done with soybean meal and the current corn DDG for ethanol;

1.  In conclusion, the GROSS INCOME per hectare/year provided by the successful cultivation of Macauba for bio-oils in Us$/hectare/year (in the 7th year to be more accurate with eucalyptus more with pine and soybean too) is up to 20 times greater than cultivating eucalyptus in the same area or up to 40 times more than pine.

Obviously, Brazil also stands out here, as it is one of the countries with the best international experience with technological routes for the production of biodiesel, glycerin, ethanol nd other derivatives. These comparisons and presentations of new routes are the main objective of this article.

Among the 11 WORLDWIDE manufacturing processes (technological routes) for AS/HVO and others currently approved/certified, the following stand out: 1) HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids), which already produces about 95.0% of current supply, but still with a maximum kerosene proportion of 50.0%, according to the following English diagnosis, and can reach "drop-in" = 100% - and which produces SAF from vegetable oils such as soybean and macauba ("raw" or used cooking oil) and also from animal fats or any other material of fatty origin; 2) ATJ (Alcohol to Jet) which consists of a process of transforming alcohols (ethanol and methanol) into SAF and with a maximum proportion to be incorporated with kerosene also of 50.0% -; 3) G + FT (Gasification of solid organic matter, associated with the Fischer-Tropsch reaction, with a maximum proportion to be incorporated into kerosene of 50.0%; and 4) PtL (Power to Liquid), which consists of the production of liquid fuels from carbon dioxide (CO2), obtained from atmospheric air and/or effluents from industrial processes (e.g., steelmaking), plus hydrogen, preferably obtained from the electrolysis of very large amounts of water (H2O), also using very large amounts of electrical energy, even renewable energy, that is, through routes that are MUCH MORE EXPENSIVE and, worse, socio-environmentally very damaging; 5) Also the catalytic hydrothermolysis (CHJ) route, which converts fatty acid esters and free fatty acids (tallow and fats) into SAF, bio-oils that can also reach 50.0% of the final mixture. Conversely, in the synthetic isoparaffins (SIP) route – which biologically convert C6 sugars into farnesene, which, combined with H2, can reach SAF – the maximum proportion in the final mixture with kerosene and other fuels is only 10.0%. For more information, see in English: https://skynrg.com/sustainable-aviation-fuel/technology-basics/ .

Additionally, crude oils extracted from Macaúba are considered "drop-in" raw materials, meaning they can be refined and mixed directly with fossil fuels (as aerial kerosene), as they have a much lower carbon footprint than other agricultural commodities (or these oils can even be used directly without mixing). These are not tests of new technologies, but rather real implementations of such manufacturing units, since Brazil already has extensive experience in the production of biodiesel (from soy, animal fats, etc.) more of sugarcane ethanol, and now, even more so, of corn for ethanol plus DDG. With this, once again, Brazil should be the world model/example for the production and use of truly sustainable, pollution-free SAF and HVO fuels, now with very high positive socio-environmental components; more in demand and much more profitable for everyone.

Also, according to the authors mostly to the ACELEN RENOVÁVEIS/”THE ACELEN RENEWABLE” of the Arab Mubadala oil Group and also to the BASF Pharmaceuticals/Cosmetics, OUR MACAUBA IS ALREADY 5 TO 10 TIMES MORE PRODUCTIVE IN AGRICULTURAL FARMS/HECTARE/YEAR THAN SOYBEAN AND 30% MORE THAN OIL PALM (A PREVIOUSLY MORE PROMISING CROP FOR AGRICULTURAL FARMS, BUT NOW VERY EXPENSIVE DUE TO DIFFICULT-TO-CONTROL DISEASES). Additionally, it's good to know for comparison that 1 family farm cow for beef/slaughter, that feeds only on these ducks that are already very degraded and of low quality, - with its calves slaughtered in the future – current only provides a gross income of only US$ 250/cow results/hectare, but in a total equivalent to 6 years, this is only US$ 42 per hectare/year.

The ACELEN is the first group. which is already investing heavily – initially US$ 3 billion, but potentially rising to US$ 12 billion in their 5 future large projects – in its special refinery with the HEFA route, plus giant plantations of up to 4 million hectares of Macauba in Brazil (starting with 180,000 hectares for 1 billion liters of SAF/year), all on highly degraded pastureland used by family farms, and also in a model of continuous eucalyptus plantation project where farmers now will lease their degraded land – similar to an annual lease – for long-term cultivation of macauba palm trees.

Everyone considers that only 1 hectare of macauba can produce between 1.5 to 2.0 tons of SAF per year, with an average of 1.7 tons (10 times more than soybeans), this yield being calculated based on an average production of 4,000 to 5,000 liters of crude oil per 1 hectare, which undergo refining and processing hydrorefining to convert them into SAF bio-kerosene. Furthermore, according to them, 1.0 hectare of soybeans produces ONLY about 0.15 to 0.20 tons/hectare/crop of SAF (approximate average of 0.17 tons/crop), and this is from about 3.5 tons of soybeans (only 420 to 500 liters of SAF per hectare). In other words, only a small fraction of the grain becomes SAF oil (between 20%-40%). Processing and refining using the HEFA process, the density of the SAF soybean oil is close to 0.8 kg = 1.0 liter.

Also, other data from some authors indicates that just 1 hectare of Macauba can GENERATE an AVERAGE GROSS ANNUAL INCOME of Us$ 16,000 per year for at least 30 years (current exchange of R$ 5,00 = Us$ 1,00), at the peak of its production from the 7th to the 50th year, without needing to renew/replant (Gross income from oil and meal ranges from Us$ 9,000 to Us$ 26,000/hectare/year, depending on location, ages, and technologies used in cultivation, harvesting, and processing).

Still in a comparative/strategic/non-offensive way – as an experienced agricultural economist (ESALQ/USP) for about 35 years – I describe and analyze that 1 hectare of eucalyptus with an average productivity of 40 m3 to 50 m3/hectare/year for pulp (average of 45 m3 or 27 t., with 500 to 720 kg of solids per m3 and 70% moisture) - more also according to some authors - will produce an AVERAGE ACCUMULATED GROSS INCOME in its 7th-8th year of only US$ 2,400 (until it needs to be felled and replanted) – that is, between US$ 2,000/7 years to US$ 2,800/7 years – or, on average, equivalent to only US$ 330/hectare/year (between US$ 260 to US$ 400). (Thousands/hectare/year, according to EMBRAPA Florestas or CNA Brasil panels) and all this excluding the extremely high costs/investments – financial and environmental – of the necessary replanting. In pine plantations, the gross annual income is very low, only Us$ 400/hectare/year, according to EMBRAPA Florestas or CNA Brasil panels.

Even worse, the annual net profit from eucalyptus for pulp – harvested at 6 years old, according to EMBRAPA Florestas or CNA Brasil panels – is very low, only between US$ 220 and US$ 320/hectare/year (average of US$ 270/hectare/year). The final net profit from pine at 30 m³/hectare/year for sawmills is even worse, averaging only US$ 0,83/hectare/year, according to EMBRAPA Florestas. In the case of soybeans (productivity of 51 sc/hectare) and currently being cultivated in the 2025/26 crop season in Mato Grosso do Sul State, the cost has reduced slightly to approximately US$ 9,50/60 kg sc CIF (cost including land), but, AS THE CURRENT SELLING PRICE (JUNE/2026) IS US$ 22,50/SC FOB (cost including land), THE NET INCOME PROVIDED IS US$ 13,00/SC AND OF Us$ 643/HECTARE.

Thus (leveling and comparing the 3 net incomes in the 8th year, since Macauba is perennial from the 8th to the 50th year) EVEN WITH HIGH real income above approximately US$ 643/hectare (=R$ 3,264.00/hectare) in the current harvest on a farm in State of MS (center-west region closer Bolivia and Paraguai) SOY – IN ADDITION TO REQUIRING ANNUAL REPLANTING AND GOOD RAINFALL AND GOOD SOILS (and operations with many polluting machines) – STILL LOSES TO MACAUBA, WHICH HAS AN ESTIMATED AVERAGE INCOME ABOVE BY US$ 1.900/hectare/year (=R$ 9,500), THAT IS, UP TO 3 TIMES MORE THAN THE SUPER SOYBEAN (ONLY ANNUAL), IN ADDITION TO MACAUBA BEING PERENNIAL and having a useful life of about 42 years (from the 8th to the 50th year). We would also like to inform you that eucalyptus for pulp is a temporary crop (harvested from the 6th to the 8th year); pine for sawmills is a temporary crop too (harvested up to the 10th year); and soybeans are an annual/repetitive/crop-time crop.

So, comparatively, and based on other data from the link below, the ANNUAL NET INCOME – as already transformed into SAF -  FROM MACAÚBA FOR BIO-OILS VARIES FROM A GOOD US$ 800 TO A VERY HIGH US$ 5,000/PER HECTARE/SAF/YEAR, ACCORDING TO AUTHORS, DEPENDING ON THE YEAR OF CULTIVATION, LOCATION AND, MAINLY, OF REFINERY YIELD (AVERAGE OF US$ 2.800/HECTARE/SAF/YEAR), THUS BEING 7 TIMES MORE THAN EUCALYPTUS FOR CELLULOSE AND 23 TIMES MORE THAN PINE FOR SAWMILLS.

Synthesizing and better analyzing the income and production items of MACAÚBA, we have:

1) Firm fruit production (pulp + more pit for cake/feed + husk) of 30 to 40 tons/year from the 8th year (average of 35 t./year) until the 50th year;

2) Total oil production (pulp + part of seed/pit) of 2,500 to 4,000 liters/hectare/year (average of 3,300 liters), compared to an average of only up to 450 to 600 liters of soybeans/crop;

3) Estimated Constant (perenial) Gross Revenue of US$ 4,000 to Us$ 10,000/hectare/year;

4) Maintenance and Harvesting Costs of Us$ 1,200 to US$ 2,000/hectare/year;

5) Estimated Net Income in SAF form of US$ 800 to US$ 3,000-US$ 5.000/SAF/hectare/year as refinery yeld.

END

Brasília (DF) and Porto Seguro (BA) on June 7, 2026 (Portuguese version)

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“VIVAMELHOR AMBIENTAL A BRAZIL THINK TANK”

(a modern and faster socio-environmentalist/green & sustainable energies Brazilian “think tank”).

For further details, INCLUDING WHERE, HOW, AND HOW MUCH TO INVEST BETTER AND EVEN WITH “ZERO” RISK (I know and have visited 90% of the interior of Brazil), contact me only by email at [email protected]